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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 20 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to SF 30 for 13 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP