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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to TB 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.55 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP