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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TB
54.8%
SEA
45.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.219 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than TB
  • SEA defense: -0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 25
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring
Jamel Dean CB Out Hip
Christian Izien S Out Quadricep
Bucky Irving RB Out Foot
Benjamin Morrison CB Out Hamstring

SEA

DeMarcus Lawrence DE Out Quadricep
Julian Love S Out Hamstring
Josh Jones T Out Ankle
Devon Witherspoon CB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 38
–
SEA 35

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:00 FG TB (8:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 14:11 FG TB (14:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 02:14 TD TB (2:14) 1-R.White left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – SEA 0
  • Q2 00:09 TD SEA (:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – SEA 6
  • Q3 13:05 TD SEA (13:05) 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – SEA 13
  • Q3 07:56 TD TB (7:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – SEA 14
  • Q3 04:17 TD SEA (4:17) 78-M.Richman reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-92-E.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 21 – SEA 20
  • Q3 00:23 TD TB (:23) 1-R.White left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – SEA 21
  • Q4 09:53 TD SEA (9:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – SEA 27
  • Q4 03:25 TD SEA (3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – SEA 34
  • Q4 01:15 TD TB (1:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 17-S.Shepard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 34 – SEA 35
  • Q4 00:03 FG TB (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 38 – SEA 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (8:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 85%

    (4:10) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (14:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%

    (11:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to TB 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 53%

    (7:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to SEA 1, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 91%

    (3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.