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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 92

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-81-R.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 92, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 50, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model