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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP