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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.30 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model