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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP