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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 3 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model