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1-4 HC Brian Callahan
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Arizona Cardinals

2-3 HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-10-05 · 16:05 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TEN
19.6%
ARI
80.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN): -0.348 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than TEN

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 17 10–24
–
ARI 29 22–36
Projected margin: ARI by 12 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Blake Hance G Out Shoulder
Mike Brown S Out Knee
Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
JC Latham T Out Hip
Calvin Ridley WR Questionable Knee
James Lynch DE Questionable Shoulder
Tyjae Spears RB Questionable Ankle
Kevin Winston Jr. S Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Darius Robinson DT Out Pectoral
Evan Brown G Doubtful Hamstring
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Neck
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Collarbone
Max Melton CB Questionable Hamstring
Denzel Burke CB Questionable Knee
Will Johnson CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 22
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:57 TD ARI (10:57) 22-M.Carter up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 05:04 FG TEN (5:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 3 – ARI 7
  • Q1 00:46 TD ARI (:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – ARI 13
  • Q2 10:49 TD ARI (10:49) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – ARI 20
  • Q2 08:34 FG TEN (8:34) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 6 – ARI 21
  • Q4 10:30 TD TEN (10:30) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – ARI 21
  • Q4 04:53 TD TEN (4:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Taylor-Demerson (2-Ma.Wilson) at ARI 5. 42-D.Taylor-Demerson to ARI 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, touched at ARI 6, RECOVERED by TEN-4-T.Lockett at ARI 0. TOUCHDOWN. TEN 18 – ARI 21
  • Q4 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 22 – ARI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (5:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:06) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 6 yards (52-J.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (12:32) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 77%

    (8:34) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:12) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 18 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:40) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to TEN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-C.Dike to TEN 49 for 12 yards (81-T.Vokolek).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%

    (:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 48 for -12 yards (10-J.Sweat).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%

    (:14) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. ** Injury Update: TEN-52-J.Williams has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:51) 3-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:22) 3-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 10 yards (30-K.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 37 for 17 yards (31-E.Demercado).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ARI 7, impetus ends at ARI 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-54-D.Mausi.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →