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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 6 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model