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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(:14) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. ** Injury Update: TEN-52-J.Williams has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP