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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 6 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 3-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.03 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP