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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 6 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 3-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 10 yards (30-K.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP