Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Tennessee Titans 6

(2:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 37 for 17 yards (31-E.Demercado).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.22 EP
57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model