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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.65 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model