Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 96

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to IND 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 6-A.Gould to IND 45 for -2 yards (36-K.Crawford). PENALTY on IND-38-C.Lammons, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at IND 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.78 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.43 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 96, worth -5.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model