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Arizona Cardinals

2-4 HC Jonathan Gannon
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Indianapolis Colts

5-1 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ARI
37.7%
IND
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23 16–30
–
IND 27 20–34
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Blake Gillikin P Out Back
Darius Robinson DT Out Pectoral
Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Mack Wilson LB Questionable Ankle
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Foot
Max Melton CB Questionable Hamstring
Cody Simon LB Questionable Knee

IND

Kenny Moore II CB Out Achilles
Tyler Goodson RB Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 TD IND (11:06) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 01:45 TD ARI (1:45) 71-J.Gaines and 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 07:56 TD IND (7:56) 17-D.Jones scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 01:59 FG ARI (1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell. ARI 10 – IND 14
  • Q3 08:43 TD ARI (8:43) 68-K.Beachum and 71-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – IND 14
  • Q3 04:36 FG IND (4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ARI 17 – IND 17
  • Q3 01:28 TD ARI (1:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-20-Z.Knight was injured during the play. Penalty on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined. ARI 23 – IND 17
  • Q4 13:17 TD IND (13:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-Z.Collins]. ARI 24 – IND 23
  • Q4 09:36 FG ARI (9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell. ARI 27 – IND 24
  • Q4 04:35 TD IND (4:35) 28-J.Taylor left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – IND 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:13) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to IND 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ARI 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 44 for 12 yards (55-C.Muma).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:12) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to IND 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 6-A.Gould to IND 45 for -2 yards (36-K.Crawford). PENALTY on IND-38-C.Lammons, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at IND 47.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].

    See the full breakdown →