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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.34 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model