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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model