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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to IND 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP