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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 82-C.Washington (7-Ta.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model