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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Monday 2025-10-13 · 19:15 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

BUF
59.3%
ATL
40.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.284 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL on 7 more days rest than BUF
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 26
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BUF

Matt Milano LB Out Pectoral
Damar Hamlin S Out Pectoral
T.J. Sanders DT Out Knee
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Neck
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Oblique

ATL

LaCale London DT Out Triceps
Darnell Mooney WR Out Hamstring
Ta'Quon Graham DE Out Calf
Clark Phillips III CB Out Triceps
Natrone Brooks CB Questionable Concussion
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 14
–
ATL 24

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:22 TD ATL (12:22) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 08:08 TD BUF (8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – ATL 7
  • Q1 00:32 TD ATL (:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – ATL 13
  • Q2 11:22 TD ATL (11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – ATL 20
  • Q3 09:29 TD BUF (9:29) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – ATL 21
  • Q4 01:47 FG ATL (1:47) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. BUF 14 – ATL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 17 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 26 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 42-J.Woods).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to ATL 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 35%

    (8:21) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 5, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 77%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 82-C.Washington (7-Ta.Johnson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:22) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ATL 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:17) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 41 for 14 yards (25-T.Allgeier). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 30.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 47%

    (1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-Ty.Johnson.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (12:31) 39-J.Romo 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-G.Rousseau), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by BUF-37-J.Hancock at BUF 39.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:24) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ATL 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 33 for 7 yards (23-D.Hellams; 4-K.Hodge).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:55) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 28 for 11 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on ATL-23-D.Hellams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (1:47) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.