Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

(1:22) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ATL 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model