Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 41 for 14 yards (25-T.Allgeier). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model