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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-Ty.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model