4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 39-J.Romo 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-G.Rousseau), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by BUF-37-J.Hancock at BUF 39.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model