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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ATL 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP