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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 33 for 7 yards (23-D.Hellams; 4-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.24 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP