Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 28 for 11 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on ATL-23-D.Hellams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model