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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 26 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 42-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model