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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to ATL 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model