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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 31
Chicago Bears 13 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(5:35) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze (4-F.Luvu).
The Three Options
GO
+2.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK
+0.67 EP
- 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
- 25% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
