4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Monday 2025-10-13 · 20:15 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

CHI
33.9%
WAS
66.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CHI

Grady Jarrett DT Out Knee
Cairo Santos K Questionable Thigh
Travis Homer RB Questionable Calf
Austin Booker DE Questionable Knee
Colston Loveland TE Questionable Hip

WAS

Noah Brown WR Out Groin
Terry McLaurin WR Out Quadricep
Sam Cosmi G Doubtful Knee
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Illness
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR Questionable Heel
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 25
–
WAS 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:45 FG CHI (10:45) 16-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 02:30 FG CHI (2:30) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 14:22 TD CHI (14:22) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – WAS 0
  • Q2 09:33 TD WAS (9:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 19-C.Moore for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – WAS 6
  • Q3 12:03 FG WAS (12:03) 16-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. CHI 13 – WAS 10
  • Q3 08:09 FG CHI (8:09) 16-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 16 – WAS 10
  • Q3 03:03 TD WAS (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 11-L.McCaffrey for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – WAS 16
  • Q4 11:31 TD WAS (11:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – WAS 23
  • Q4 10:36 TD CHI (10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 22 – WAS 24
  • Q4 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 25 – WAS 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%

    (10:45) 16-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (2:30) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 75%

    (5:35) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze (4-F.Luvu).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 73%

    (1:14) 16-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 66%

    (12:03) 16-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%

    (8:09) 16-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 34%

    (4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 26-J.McNichols to CHI 34 for 13 yards (90-D.Robinson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (15:00) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Payne), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-16-J.Moody at WAS 37.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (8:04) 10-T.Way punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-S.Daly. 83-J.Lane to WAS 39 for 9 yards (48-D.Jackson; 36-J.Owens).