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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 35

Washington Commanders 7 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 16-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model