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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 29

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 16-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP