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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Chicago Bears
4th & 18 at the 23
Chicago Bears 13 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(8:09) 16-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
The Three Options
GO
+0.49 EP
-
22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
- 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK
+1.11 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
