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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 47

Washington Commanders 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 26-J.McNichols to CHI 34 for 13 yards (90-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model