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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 30

Chicago Bears 16 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Payne), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-16-J.Moody at WAS 37.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model