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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 83

Chicago Bears 22 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-S.Daly. 83-J.Lane to WAS 39 for 9 yards (48-D.Jackson; 36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 41, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP