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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 8 at the 30
Chicago Bears 3 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(2:30) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
The Three Options
GO
+0.34 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
+0.45 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
- 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT
-0.38 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
