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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to GB 8, Center-46-W.Wagner. 87-R.Doubs to GB 17 for 9 yards (26-T.Anderson; 34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model