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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2025-10-12 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CIN
19.0%
GB
81.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.206 vs Joe Flacco (CIN) -0.151 EPA/dropback (CIN starting Joe Flacco in place of Jake Browning)
  • CIN offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • GB on 7 more days rest than CIN
  • GB defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 17
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

Lucas Patrick G Out Calf
Shemar Stewart DE Doubtful Ankle
Ja'Marr Chase WR Questionable Illness
Matt Lee C Questionable Knee
Dylan Fairchild G Questionable Knee

GB

Devonte Wyatt DT Out Knee
Christian Watson WR Out Knee
Anthony Belton T Out Ankle
Brandon McManus K Questionable Quadricep
Aaron Banks G Questionable Groin
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Concussion
Rasheed Walker T Questionable Quadricep
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Oblique
Jacob Monk C Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 18
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:20 FG GB (14:20) 35-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CIN 0 – GB 3
  • Q2 04:08 TD GB (4:08) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – GB 9
  • Q3 04:50 TD CIN (4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined. CIN 6 – GB 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – GB 16
  • Q4 10:47 FG CIN (10:47) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – GB 17
  • Q4 07:42 TD GB (7:42) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – GB 23
  • Q4 04:17 TD CIN (4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – GB 24
  • Q4 01:56 FG GB (1:56) 35-L.Havrisik 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CIN 18 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%

    (10:51) 10-J.Love up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (58-J.Ossai; 49-B.Carter).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to GB 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on GB-16-B.Melton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (14:20) 35-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to GB 11, Center-46-W.Wagner. 87-R.Doubs to GB 16 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CIN 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-C.Jones to CIN 37 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams; 16-B.Melton).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:22) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:01) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to GB 8, Center-46-W.Wagner. 87-R.Doubs to GB 17 for 9 yards (26-T.Anderson; 34-S.Perine).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 46%

    (1:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to CIN 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (:01) 2-E.McPherson 67 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. 25-K.Nixon at GB -5 to GB 32 for 37 yards (71-A.Mims; 74-J.Rivers).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (10:47) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 90%

    (1:56) 35-L.Havrisik 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 57%

    (:46) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.