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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) 2-E.McPherson 67 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. 25-K.Nixon at GB -5 to GB 32 for 37 yards (71-A.Mims; 74-J.Rivers).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.59 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model