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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 10-J.Love up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (58-J.Ossai; 49-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model