4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.25 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model