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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model