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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 18 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(:46) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model