Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to GB 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on GB-16-B.Melton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model