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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to GB 11, Center-46-W.Wagner. 87-R.Doubs to GB 16 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model