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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CAR 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-38-A.Clark.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP